American Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice has been working hard for weeks on a Middle East peace conference to be held in Annapolis, Maryland in November. There are solid reasons for her efforts. The United States has undeniably lost a great deal of support in the Middle East both because of its lies about Weapons of Mass Destruction and Saadam’s supposed ties to El Qaeda and its unbelievably clumsy conduct of the Iraq War. Most people in the region regard the United States not as the guarantor of democracy but as an imperialist power propping up corrupt regimes and favoring Israel in its conflict with those whom they regard as hapless Palestinian victims. Through these last six years of the Bush administration, the U.S. has disengaged from the peace efforts of the Clinton administration and given the Israelis free rein in dealing with the Palestinians. Now, however Secretary Rice is understandably anxious to restore American credibility, especially in the Sunni world, and the United State has once again, taken on the role of Middle Eastern peace maker.
As a long time advocate of peace in the Middle East, I would love to find cause for optimism but I see little reason to believe that a conference in November can accomplish much. First, there is little evidence of adequate American preparation. The real work of such a conference is not done at the meeting itself but for months beforehand, through policy papers, frequent meetings with the players and major understandings reached before the conference. Camp David, many experts agree, may have failed, in part, because of inadequate preparation but the experienced Clinton team did shuttle constantly between the key players in a manner we have not seen, at least openly duplicated by Ms. Rice and her associates. All we have seen are a series of meetings between Olmert and Abu Mazen, with the former urging agreement on a series of “principles” and the latter asking for commitments and progress towards a final accord.
A second reason for my pessimism is the state of the Palestinian Authority under Abu Mazen. The years of the second intifadah spent in counter-productive suicide bombings and armed conflict, the great division in Palestinian ranks between Hamas and Fatah, the continuing corruption of the latter, and the undeniable pressures of the Israeli occupation have left Palestinians with little more than a figurehead government. Yes, part of the blame for this state of affairs can be placed on Israel but regardless of how the blame is apportioned, it is difficult to understand how any Israeli government could rely on the undertakings of a now pathetic PA leadership. Moreover, both Israeli and Western observers are keenly aware that Hamas, through the instrument of terror, has a fearsome veto power over any peace agreement. If Israel was prepared to grant major concessions to the PA, then the threat from Hamas might decline but that does not seem likely.
Of course, Israeli society is also much divided on the issue of peace. We all know the broad outlines of what a final status agreement should look like, along the lines of Camp David or Geneva, but the settler movement will fight any attempt to sacrifice large areas of the West Bank, the religious will oppose compromise on sovereignty over the Temple Mount and many Israelis will oppose any division of Jerusalem. Prime Minister Olmert’s own Kadima Party is divided merely over rumors coming from the negotiations. The new Labor Leader Ehud Barak, is trying to burnish his security credentials and openly opposes a peace agreement until Israel can construct a system to counter short range rockets, in four years or so. He advises that no concessions should be made to a lame-duck Bush administration. Haunted by Camp David, Barak has taken a sharp turn to the right, to compete with Bibi Netanyahu. There is, then, no substantial peace constituency in the Knesset.
If Secretary Rice proves capable of moving Israel, the Palestinians and the Arab powers to the bargaining table, with a realistic possibility of a constructive agreement, even on interim steps, then I will be pleasantly amazed. She has not much to show for her own legacy or that of the Bush administration. We should all wish her well.
